For many years, shrimp farming has been one of the pillar industries of Vietnam's agricultural economy and a core driver of the country's seafood export trade. As the world's third-largest shrimp exporter, Vietnam's shrimp farming industry has achieved rapid growth for decades thanks to the unique coastal geographical conditions of the Mekong Delta, its suitable tropical climate, and its large-scale farming operations.

According to data from the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), Vietnam's shrimp exports reached US$4.65 billion in 2025, a year-on-year increase of nearly 20%, accounting for approximately 41% of the country's total seafood exports. This directly supports half of the country's fisheries economy and sustains the livelihoods and food security of over 17 million people in coastal regions such as the Mekong Delta. However, with the intensification of global climate change, this land, once considered a "shrimp farming paradise," is facing unprecedented challenges-industry risks have completely transcended the limitations of seasonal cycles, transforming into structural risks permeating the entire supply chain. The former natural advantages are being gradually eroded by the continuously unstable climate environment.

As typical poikilothermic crustaceans, shrimp are extremely sensitive to subtle changes in their environment. Even minor fluctuations in temperature, salinity, pH, and dissolved oxygen levels can directly impact their growth, reproduction, and even survival. Over the past few decades, environmental parameters in major shrimp farming areas in Vietnam, such as the Mekong Delta and Ca Mau province, have consistently followed a relatively predictable seasonal cycle: abundant rainfall during the rainy season leads to lower salinity and stable pH levels; while reduced rainfall during the dry season causes a slow rise in salinity, with water temperatures maintained within the optimal growth range of 28-30°C. Leveraging this predictable natural rhythm, shrimp farmers, relying on generations of accumulated experience and a fixed seasonal farming calendar, can effectively manage production processes such as stocking, feeding, and water changes, maintaining stable shrimp farming operations.

However, this long-standing natural rule is now being completely disrupted by climate change, and the stability of the shrimp farming environment is no longer sustainable. Among the most direct threats is the intensified salinization. In the Mekong Delta, due to rising sea levels, land subsidence caused by excessive groundwater extraction, and prolonged drought periods, salinization has not only occurred 1-2 months earlier than in previous years, but its duration has also extended from 3-4 months to over 6 months, with some areas even experiencing year-round salinization. More importantly, salinity is no longer fluctuating slowly, but rather experiencing dramatic fluctuations in a short period, sometimes with daily salinity differences exceeding 5‰. This sudden environmental shock directly leads to stress responses in shrimp, decreased immunity, and even large-scale mortality.

The frequent occurrence of extreme weather events has further exacerbated environmental instability. The persistent heat waves in summer cause pond water temperatures to frequently exceed the critical threshold of 33°C, sometimes reaching over 35°C, far exceeding the suitable range for shrimp growth. Meanwhile, abnormally high temperatures in winter disrupt the shrimp's dormancy cycle, leading to disordered growth patterns and decreased quality. At the same time, unseasonal rainfall has become the norm-rainfall that is normally concentrated in the rainy season often suddenly erupts during the dry season. Short-term torrential rains cause pond water levels to rise sharply, and pH and alkalinity to fluctuate drastically within hours, disrupting the acid-base balance of the water. In coastal aquaculture areas such as Ca Mau province, this unseasonal rainfall also carries large amounts of terrestrial pollutants into the ponds, further deteriorating the aquatic environment.

The real crisis is not the anomaly of a single environmental indicator, but the overall imbalance of the entire pond ecosystem. In the past, shrimp farmers could maintain farming order by adjusting a single indicator; however, now, the superimposed abnormal fluctuations in indicators such as temperature, salinity, pH, and dissolved oxygen have led to a complete imbalance in the algae and microbial communities within the ponds. Beneficial bacteria have decreased, harmful microorganisms have proliferated, and the water's self-purification capacity has drastically declined. When the basic stability of the farming environment is destroyed, any production model based on the assumption that "shrimp are a relatively stable crop" becomes extremely fragile. Even a slight environmental fluctuation can trigger a chain reaction, leading to farming failure.

Looking back at the development of Vietnam's shrimp farming industry, the biggest risk it faced in the past was always infectious diseases-white spot syndrome, vibriosis, and other infectious diseases that repeatedly caused large-scale shrimp deaths and devastating losses for shrimp farmers. Therefore, the industry has long prioritized disease control, gradually reducing disease risks through improved farming techniques and the use of medications. However, with the deepening of climate change, the risk structure of the shrimp farming industry has fundamentally changed. In addition to traditional disease risks, soaring operating costs and ecosystem fluctuations have become two new burdens on shrimp farmers and businesses. Furthermore, the reduced concealment and increased cumulative nature of these risks have intensified the survival pressure on the entire industry to an unprecedented degree.